​As we enter a New Year – 2021 – what can we expect in the next 365 days that may significantly affect our lives? The typical New Year Greetings for 2021 will certainly need some serious tweaking! 

What the world went through in the last nine months of 2020 was disastrous for all human life on this planet. That China triggered the pandemic is not a debate anymore. The fundamental and radical shifts that this pandemic brought about on earth for humans was drastically treacherous. Some serious re-calibrations have occurred. China, to me, will continue to be the fulcrum around which much of what is instore for us in 2021 may happen. What diseases will erupt in 2021 may well depend on what the Chinese are eating now.

 As a new year dawns, the gravity of the pandemic as it continues to ravage the richer nations with an ageing population can perhaps be smothered by a basket of vaccines. Whether the virus and its mutations will be overpowered by the vaccines, we will perhaps know in another three months. 

2021 as I look at it now, is full of unpredictable scenarios. The virus continues to play its stealthy games. There is uncertainty on the economic front everywhere with a patchy recovery. The geopolitics is irritable and can ignite an already volatile and unstable situation.  Let us look at a few of the trouble spots.

1.  Scramble for Vaccines.  The scarcity of vaccines can trigger troubles of all sorts. 
2. A yo-yo economy – rich-poor gap will widen and leave the poor further disadvantaged.
3. The fast-changing nature of the tech world with its now positive favourable effects on some parts of the economy – like online shopping – work-from-home (WFM) – distance learning, may all either remain or simply vanish, depending on how the virus behaves in 2021 and how effective will the vaccine be.
4. Tourism – Airlines – Hotels – Aircraft manufacturers will struggle.
5. Brick and mortar Universities may close. Consequences are complex with idling real estate.
6. Permanent job losses – the pandemic has done some lasting damage to certain jobs.
7. High inflations – after effect of enormous fiscal stimulus injected in 2020.
8. Trade war – unclear with huge Chinese trade surplus.
9. The looming China factor.

Already in the United States, reports indicate that the initial scarcity of the COVID -19 vaccines is showing signs of an emerging and thriving black market. Reports indicate that well-connected people and the wealthy can skim off a few doses here and there for friends, family or the highest bidder robbing the legitimate chances for frontline warriors like health workers, teachers, farm workers, firefighters etc. In India, I feel that many may not take the vaccine if the Gods (and the Rev Virus) continue to bless us with lower infections and deaths. Our death rate per million is in the lower three digits at 108 whereas some of the richer nations are in four digits ranging from 1,674 (Belgium) and USA (1,057). They certainly need the vaccine more than us!

Economic calamities severely affect the poor disproportionately. Going by past pandemics, the toll on poorer and vulnerable segments of society will be worse. Economists believe that the pandemic will worsen income inequality severely impacting the low-skilled workers. The Global Hunger Index for 2020 has placed India at 94th amongst the 107 nations covered by the study. This ranking is shockingly worse than our neighbours – Sri Lanka (64th), Nepal (73rd), Bangladesh (75th), Myanmar(78th) & Pakistan at 88th position. 14% of India’s population is undernourished. The after-effects of this pandemic will be telling on this vulnerable section of India’s populace. States in India like Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar will have to honestly do something dramatic and work harder to pull out more poor people out of the slippery slope of hunger and malnutrition.

The pandemic prevented the usual smooth creative destruction of businesses. It wrecked the leisure industry while creating an unprecedent boom in the video streaming field. A McKinsey Report in May 2020 said, “Recent data show that we have vaulted five years forward in consumer and business digital adoption in a matter of around eight weeks”. It seems that while recovery slowly resumes, digital laggards will be greatly denied opportunities. However, as more people become “cyborgs”1 the scale of dependence on some of the tech oligopolies is scary. This could trigger a tilt in the battle for power, perhaps political muscles destroying what may be considered dangerous innovations. (see below - what is happening now in China)

I do not think either the Chinese or the Americans really intend to entirely decouple their two economies. Mr. Xi Jinping’s leadership speaking for all ethnic Chinese people – a whopping 30 million South East Asians of Chinese ancestry – and already controlling Cambodia & Lagos- can tilt the Vietnamese ambitions. Post COVID-19, Vietnam is promising to be an emerging economy with bright prospects. But the Chinese may put a spoke in the wheel and will not allow them to flourish. The Communist Party of Vietnam will have to deftly balance the public outrage of Chinese meddling and the reality of upsetting a powerful Chinese regime. 

The Chinese will continue to stir and churn the world while the now less potent US and the Western Europe may have lesser influence over them. On the contrary, the Chinese will continue to unleash their crafty, covert, and clandestine tricks on whoever comes in their way. I may not be surprised if they try and sabotage businesses migrating to India. Did they have anything to do with the recent incident in Bangalore? 

Australia too can face adversity in 2021. Australia has been lucky without a recession for the last more than twenty-five years. China has been a significant factor to Australia’s booming economy contributing almost 40% of their export to China, close to 1.4 million Chinese tourists and a large fee-paying Chinese students in Australia.  Post the pandemic, the Chinese are not happy with them for a variety of reasons. The Australians perhaps now regret that they allowed them to play with their public institutions and think tanks. This can adversely affect Australia and its significant Indian migrant population there.

For a very long period Chinese authorities have insisted on a “comprehensive Party building” in the private sector, including within foreign companies operating in China. Private companies are required to set up Party branches or Party cells. This is not done secretly. This is certainly done secretly in overseas Chinese enterprises. 

Jack Ma is in trouble. Who does not know China’s maverick entrepreneur Jack Ma. He has grown bigger and bigger and now the omnipotent Mr. Xi Jinping has reigned him in. He has clipped the wings of his online financial giant – the Ant Group. Chinese Communist Party has been warning Jac Ma against its growth in consumer loans and wealth management businesses. Recently the Chinese regulators abruptly suspended Ant’s $37 billion initial public offerings in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Even Jack Ma’s e-commerce conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is under siege. Where did he go wrong – I think he grew too big and he talked openly and denounced the Chinese’s system of stifling innovation! See what I had said about “cyborgs”1
 
The epitome of globalization was its blind disrespect for borders. It brought sharper focus on certain nations and the consequent prosperity for the buyers and sellers who could participate in this trend. Such a global integration has been constantly challenged by the rise of economic nationalism and protectionism. And now this COVID-19 has exploded onto the scene accelerating the decline of rampant globalisation. So, what do we see happening in 2021. I think, many multi-national enterprises will try to operate as domestic businesses without the ability to reap the full economies of scale. Rules of capitalism could be shaken up. 

We now see a trend of gold mining companies becoming fashionable, probably because the governments world over has been pumping huge stimulus leading to inflation which in turn provides the right climate for bullions to thrive. As I write this article, Gold is at $1,899 per ounce. In the last six months, it had gained $123.52 per ounce and exactly a year ago, it had risen by $374.61 per ounce. Falling real estate prices are positive for gold. As a safe-haven asset, Gold should be in demand, but the US Dollar could steal the show. By August 7, 2020, gold reached a new all-time record of $2,062,50 an ounce. 

Will Japan return to deflation? Will interest rates stay low? What happens to Britain and the rest of the world when the New Year dawns? Will the virus return with its fury in India? I have no clue. 

Volatility triggered by the virus will result in both losers and winners. As the acceptance of and the comfort of WFM continues, certain industries like tourism and hospitality as well as airlines will continue to be hard hit and lose their momentum diminishing their rising prosperity. The comfort and acceptance of digital technologies may bring in a new symmetry which in turn could reduce people movement and it is unclear if we will ever return to the previous status quo. Cross border flow of data and professional services through remote forms of work can thrive thereby boosting the fortunes of tech enablers like Zoom, Teams, WebEx.
But the unskilled and the poor who have no access to these channels will fall deeper into the ditches. So as the New Year dawns, open you purse strings and help the less fortunate and the deprived with your kindness and generosity. Respect the virus and remember SMS – Sanitizer- Mask – Social distancing. 
 
1 By this I mean – increasingly the trend is that human minds and bodies are in a symbiotic relationship with machines.  

In about a week’s time, this Covid-19 virus would have been with us for about nine long months. We went through a series of hardships and several lock downs and restrictions throwing normal life out of gear. And today we see some signs of respite and in many towns, normalcy is returning. More importantly and worrying too is that people have no serious fear about this disease. How long is this going to last. Is this monster of a virus waiting stealthily to attack us again with a vengeance. Let us see

In India we recognised the seriousness of Covid-19 when our Prime Minister spoke to us on the 24th of March 2020 locking the entire nation of 138 Crore people (1.38 billion) for 21 days till the 14th of April 2020. Today we are on the 264th day since the lock down took effect on 25th March 20.  

On the 14th of April 20, we had a total of 10,815 reported cases. This comprised of 9,272 active cases + 1,189 cases of discharged patients + 354 reported dead due to this Virus. 

The country went for a 2nd lock down from the 15th April onwards. The 3rd lock down began on 4th May for another 14 days. On 17th May the count was a total of 90,927 cases with 53,946 active cases + 34,108 patients who were discharged and a total death of 2,873 people. 

In about a month between April and May 2020, the cases were ballooning to almost 9 times and the numbers were moving up in a geometrical manner. So, we entered Lock Down 4 on the 18th May till 31st May 2020. On that day – 31st May – the count was a whopping 182,143 cases consisting of 89,995 active patients + 86,983 discharged patients + a death of 5,165 people. That is, in about a fortnight, the numbers doubled. 
At the core of the problem as these lockdowns were imposed, was a very difficult choice that had to be made - whether to "flatten the curve" of the epidemic or whether to “flatten the curve” of the impending economic downturn. In hindsight, I feel that we in India took the right approach, although there are many who may have a different view altogether.  

By this time, in India, as the virus was spreading like wildfire, people, all, and sundry, had their own theories about this Virus and how to strike it down. Many advised grandma recipes, some seriously believed that the whole virus was bogus. And we saw hundreds of WhatsApp messages from various artistes! Many stays put wherever they were in March 2020 even now and continue to do so for the past about 9 months! We saw an exodus of migrant labour. Work from Home (it even has an acronym now – WFM), Zoom, WebEx, Team etc became a way of life and livelihood for some of the more fortunate ones. Millions lost their livelihoods. Many businesses shut shop. Students, young and old stopped attending their schools and colleges. Fear and uncertainty engulfed several millions. Office employees who had the luxury of monthly salaries literally came to the street to join the roadside vendors to earn their livelihood. Marriages were put off. People were afraid to visit hospitals even for regular treatments. Online shopping picked up. The corner shops or the Kiranas as we call them, proved their worth. On the whole ordinary life that we all took for granted turned upside down. From here on the country was witnessing severe restrictions and the bizarre behaviour of local administrations. We also saw the departure of many celebrities during this time, including our former President and the legendary musician S.P. Balasubramanian. 

To really understand the paranoia of the suffering public, look at the number of reported cases that were growing with no signs of taming the surging upward curve which peaked in September 2020.                                                                                                 

Since October, the numbers started moving downwards and today as I write this article, there is a dramatic turnaround. We have an incremental figure of just 27,071 cases on 14th December compared to what we had on 13th December 2020 with the casualty at just 336 on an all-India basis. Now reported cases of the infection are lower in the last one month although we have seen crowds gathering for festivals, elections, farmers’ protests, with relaxations in restrictions. 

The mood of this comforting flattening of the curve is seen in the attitude of the people now. They seem to have taken this pandemic in their stride and have started learning to live with it with lesser fear. They also notice that infected people are not rushing to hospitals and ventilators. There are many places in the crowded cities of India where you can see people moving about normally without even the basic precautions. Even the careful and paranoid folks seem to be a little relaxed and sometimes even negligent. Yet, largest number of cases are still prevalent in Kerala and Maharashtra whereas Bihar where the numbers were expected to rise dramatically after the elections and the Chhath festivals, have been reporting barely 500 to 600 cases a day. This virus is really playing a big circus with us. And its behaviour is not amenable to our logic and reasoning. 
The arrival of the vaccine has also emboldened people; we don’t know when it will be available in India.  Whether the vaccine will be effective or not, at least the perception that the virus can be tamed, is comforting to many and they are off their guard now.  But the fear amongst certain people is still lingering as they keep hearing that many public figures are getting infected even now. Some die too.  A common cold and associated sore throat and fever can still be a cause for worry as the symptoms triggered by the deadly virus are similar. 

A UK grandmother has become the first person in the world to be given the Pfizer Covid-19 jab as part of a mass vaccination programme. Her name is Margaret Keenan, and she is 91 years old! This was the first non-trial dose of the vaccine given to her on the 8th December 20. In India, the Pfizer vaccine - The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine – has sought approval from the Drugs Controller General of India for the 'emergency use' authorisation of its coronavirus vaccine. We have also seen videos of how fragile this vaccine is and how cumbersome its administration. Whichever the vaccine, according to the Indian National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration of Covid-19 (NEGVAC's) recommendation, the distribution of COVID vaccine will start with the healthcare providers and workers, followed by frontline workers including police and armed forces, civil defence and disaster management volunteers and municipal workers. We have also read about the numerous unconfirmed news about the scare being spread about the hazards of this vaccine. 

There is a school of thought that believes that speeding up the vaccine trials and their evaluation is fraught with dangers. No vaccine has ever been developed this fast. The TB vaccine took 28 years. The Ebola took about 6 years and AIDS does not have a vaccine yet, even though the disease has been around us for the past 40 years. But vaccine makers are facing tremendous public and political pressure to deliver a vaccine against this virus. These manufacturers are taking huge risks in these circumstances. India has not produced any original vaccine so far, except perhaps for cholera which was developed by Shantha Biotechnics in Hyderabad. India has the capability to mass produce any vaccine and certainly many global giants will explore that opportunity. But exploiting such an opportunity could be at the cost of their ability to continue to produce other vaccines that we need, and we already make them. 

Now let us see what is happening around us. Sweden was (yes, I mean was) considered a role model for the world as they took a different track altogether. They did not lock down and continued to function normally with certain precautions. They were praised around the world for their stand. But they now realise that they have gone terribly wrong with that approach. Sweden’s Covid-19 hospital bed occupancy is rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Their death per million is about 730 whereas the other neighbouring Scandinavian countries like Norway (72 per million), Denmark (162 per million) & Finland (82 per million) have substantially lower numbers.  

The situation in Germany is worrying. Figures coming from Germany showed a daily increase of more than 20,000 cases of Covid-19. This was yesterday – Sunday the 13th December 20. Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, announced tighter restrictions including closing most shops from 16th December 20 to 10th January 2021; this is Christmas time. In other words, Germany is closing  restaurants, bars and leisure centres. Germany’s death toll at 22,106 is comparatively lower than that of Italy’s at 64,036 which is marginally a bit higher than Britain’s figure of 64,026. South Korea, which has very low numbers, has also warned its people that the country is heading for more strict controls as the recent increase in new infections are alarming. United States is another story altogether. Confirmed death in the US is 297,765 with a death rate per million of 907 as on date.

Newspapers and online channels are now fed up with reporting on COVID-19 and therefore the focus is now more on political and other headlines. Daily statistics are still produced by the Ministry of Health which I religiously monitor and keep a record of every day. If normalcy is really returning to our society, then it is a matter of great relief. But is it?

As I was about to finish this article, a disturbing news came from Chennai today evening. The IIT- Madras Campus is under temporary lockdown after about 100 students and staff tested positive for COVID-19. Initial reports claim that the cause was overcrowding in the hostel mess. This is just about a week after the State Government permitted educational institutions to function from 7th December. What will happen if we open all the schools and other educational institutions and millions of students start moving about normally? 
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I am afraid that the COVID-19 is still hibernating and waiting for its next invasion. The downward trend in the numbers is comforting for sure. It is also true that our death rate per million is just 104 when you compare to the richest nations around the world with much lower populations where the rate is more than 1000 per million. It is also true that we are a young country with a population of 1380 million people. Our average age is 26.8 years. So far, we have done well. Yet, it is better to be cautious as this Virus without a body has a big ego. The moment you think you have won over the infections; this virus can pounce on us when we least expect it.  Better to be safe than sorry. Keep that fear lingering in you. Wear the mask, keep that distance, avoid crowded places and wet your hands with the ubiquitous soap and the sanitizer. 

Being at the right place at the right time and doing the right thing is a good recipe for success. This is as true for ordinary mortals as  for  entrepreneurs who are successfully doing this time and again. Are these people what they are, by a conspiracy of happy accidents? I have heard a few of them say, “a bit of luck helps and a lot of luck is even better” 
 
 
Golf they say is often a game of luck. I don’t think this is untrue, may be because I am not too good at it.  How about a game of poker or black jack? People who play cards tell me that luck determines the way the cards are dealt but awareness and understanding determine how you play them for the best results. Would you say the same for a game of chess?  Cricket, I suppose you know the answer. Do you?
 
How about a person who ventured into a new territory, established a market for his new product and also caught peak of the sales. Was this person just plain lucky? What about the man who waited a year and had to take what was left of that market, was he unlucky? 
 
 
When some one walks on the road and finds a bundle of high value notes, no one really believes that he or she should take credit for it. But in business, if one gets lucky like that, which I have discovered, sometimes happen, I suppose such luck is not really apparent. Such luck is also a secret unless it is unearthed by the not so lucky and jealous competitor. 
 
Why are some people always lucky while others never get the breaks? Questions like this have no convincing answers for some.   
 
What is this luck that people talk about especially when they see other people more successful than themselves. In folklore, the goddess Fortune was conventionally depicted as a blindfolded woman turning a large wheel. In the same breadth let us also remember the proverb “The highest spoke in the fortune’s wheel, may soon turn lowest”. That is how fickle this luck or fortune is. And interestingly it is also a four letter word for some!!
 
Fate and luck play a role in business. Leaders themselves are sometimes ready to acknowledge the role of luck. But the truth is luck can never carry the day completely. Successful entrepreneurs are essentially innovative, ethically convincing and truthfully positive. Such people are able to rally behind them, a host of talented and committed people. A vision and mission communicated by the entrepreneur with clarity, honesty, charisma and passion is what creates an atmosphere of charge which then ignites and propels an enterprise. The sheer doggedness and determination drive these ordinary people who achieve extra ordinary things just by not giving up. As they say “the harder you work the luckier you get” .
 
Successful entrepreneurs make their own luck when they leave themselves open to coincidences, unexpected opportunities and serendipitous - pleasant and unexpected- discoveries.  However, even  serendipity needs a fertile ground and a willingness to act. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Faith may move mountains but you also need your shovel and help. 
 
In the world of science, it is said that very stringent  research processes often produce ordinary results. So out of ordinary performance requires the freedom not to function like a bridled horse.  Unexpected discoveries are not simply a matter of   chance but they arise from chance and as Louis Pasteur said “chance only favours minds which are prepared”. Entrepreneurs often accept the role of chance, but underplay its role as they are understandably fearful that others will exaggerate or misinterpret its contribution.  
 
In a world of ingenuity, spontaneity and rush, the ability to translate  creative ideas into profitable ventures is only possible with a superior capacity to perform. Shorter life cycle of products and services bring dazzling dynamism in the market place where many brands struggle to survive. Even for those brands that manage to exist, there is a continual reshuffling of position.  This is a reality far away removed from fortuitous conditions. Then as Mark Twain said necessity is the mother of taking chances. The decision you take decides matters. In a way, luck is an accident that happens to the competent.  Being alert is what luck is all about. If you are not alert then someone smarter will get ahead of you. 
 
The harder you try, the luckier you get. As the Swedes say – Luck never gives, it only lends. 

​One has to dwell deep into these ancient writings that are collecting dust in the dwindling number of brick and mortar libraries to get a glimpse of the pearls of wisdom that are embedded in them. These are repositories of very powerful thoughts many of which have universal application. The impregnable   powers of logic and analysis and the attention to details in some of these works have baffled scholars and have turned some of the very successful entrepreneurs into serious students.
 
Entrepreneurs will benefit immensely if they can lay their hands on them. They can enrich their entrepreneurial skills with ancient insight. The various books on Vedanta and ancient Indian classical are indeed a treasure house.  They educate us on the laws of life and living and help us gain knowledge about our intrinsic Self.  
 
It is not possible to array all of these works here.  But mention must be made of at least one of the very best amongst them whose teachings have universal application even today.
 
There was this man, don’t know when he was born, could be 300 B.C. or 150 A.D., who helped Chandragupta, a boy of royal line, but fostered by a cowherd, to become the King of Magadha.  Kautilya, more well known as Chanakya, bought the young lad and he gave the lad education that befitted a king. Together they fought another king and won the kingdom for Chandragupta. 
 
Kautilya who practiced all the tactics that he preached, is the author of a practical work called Arthashaastra, meaning the science of politics and in its widest sense the art of running a government. The book portrays the philosophy that promotion of the welfare of the subjects leads to wealth which in turn helps enlarge the empire. Kautilya said “The source of the livelihood of men is wealth” So entrepreneurs and wealth creators lay your hands on this great work and draw inspiration!
 
His work deals with a host of topics – On adversities, calamities, succession, self control, duties, responsibilities, security, conspiracies, service. organogram, customers, planning, budgets, accounts, audit, treasury, revenue, financial rules, penalties and punishments, trade and transport, laws, foreign policy, war and whole range of variegated issues.  As a student, this great work humbles you.
 
In today’s world of ingenuity, spontaneity and rush, the maxim for entrepreneurs is to build the right team with the right people and the right rewards. Many of the modern day entrepreneurs who have evolved will remember the saying that the difference between running a business and ruining it, is “i” Consider what Kautilya said several hundreds of years ago. 
 
“In the happiness of his subjects lies the king’s happiness; in their welfare his welfare. He shall not consider as good only that which pleases him but treat as beneficial to him whatever pleases his subjects”.   
 
A powerful thought that is relevant even today and every word pregnant with meaning. These are the words couched differently that adorn the corporate corridors of today in the form of vision and mission statements.
 
All entrepreneurs assume risks in the right proportions for without risks there is no reward. Managing risks and not avoiding them, is the art perfected by entrepreneurs.
Kautilya even thought about this hundreds of years ago and had this to say.
 
“In the interest of the prosperity of the country, a king should be diligent in foreseeing the possibility of calamity, try to avert them before they arise, overcome those which happen, remove all obstacles to economic activity and prevent loss of revenue to state.”  
 
Consider some more of the valuable quotes from his work. They have considerable depth.
 
“Just as it is impossible not to taste honey or poison that one may find at the tip of one’s tongue, so it is impossible for one dealing with government funds not to taste, atleast a little bit, of the King’s wealth.” 
 
“A single assassin can achieve, with weapons, fire or poison, more than a fully mobilized army”.  How true it is today. 
 
 
“Just as elephants are needed to catch elephants, so does one need wealth to capture more wealth”.  . India’s entrepreneurial prowess is as old as our ancient history. Present day entrepreneurs who are endowed with talent enriched by an enviable culture and  those who have been successful and have the temperament , can channel the energies of our youth into activities that can create more wealth for this nation,  as Kautilya said . 
 
“The root of wealth is economic activity and lack of it brings material distress. In the absence of fruitful activity, both current prosperity and future growth are in danger of destruction”.

​How easy it is to talk about vision, strategy, courage, passion, determination, talent, temperament and many such attributes that are ingredients to success. But how many are able to fathom the trials and tribulations of an entrepreneur. 
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​It is an irony of our times that the words ‘entrepreneurship’ and ‘success’ are often used in the same breath—ironical because, the downside associated with start-ups is failure, and failure is more common than success. Successful entrepreneurs themselves estimate that for every success, there are probably five hundred failures. But people talk more about success than failure, for a variety of reasons: there is a stigma attached to failure, people may want to motivate themselves by focusing only on successes, and so on. But one failure does not make a disaster. Failure is the result of one or more mistakes, and affords an opportunity to individuals and organizations to learn from those mistakes. An individual who learns the right lessons is unlikely to repeat them, because he knows what pitfalls to avoid, and he keeps an eye open for them.
 
Entrepreneurship is all about the willingness to take risks—indeed the necessity of taking them-- entering uncharted areas, and making quick decisions often on the basis of insufficient data, because entrepreneurs usually not have the luxury of detailed market research reports and the time to study them at length. Mistakes and errors of judgment are therefore inevitable. In fact, there is a case for arguing that if an entrepreneur or a manager has made no mistakes, it might be because he has taken no risks and made no snap decisions. Any entrepreneur will tell you that start-up life is about coping with ambiguity, constant change and uncertainty. Success leads to profits, but equally, a failed venture leads to losses. Those who are not willing to take the risk of failure should not therefore think of becoming entrepreneurs.
 
Failure is like teens—an awkward and uncomfortable phase in life, but an experience that precedes maturity. There is nothing negative about failure, except when there are repeated failures, in which case it points to a serious problem. But by and large, failure is a positive experience, because it is a character builder. As Goethe said “ A talent can be cultivated in tranquility; a character only in the rushing stream of life.”  If, after experiencing failure, an individual is able to look into the mirror and honestly say, “I did the best I could, I left nothing to chance,” there is no cause to be disturbed. A little soul-searching and introspection should normally allow such people to bounce back.
 
What three great American entrepreneurs, whose companies are household names throughout the world, had to say about failure, is very instructive. Bill Gates, for one, is known for hiring people who have made mistakes. His rationale: “It shows that they take risks. The way people deal with things that go wrong is an indicator of how they deal with change.” And the ability to handle change is vital in today’s highly competitive business world, characterized by massive pressure on profit margins and on people tasked with delivering those profits.
 
Henry Ford had this to say: “One who fears failure limits his activities. Failure is only the opportunity more intelligently to begin again.” And this is what Thomas Edison, the founder of GE, said: “Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.”
 
Of course, in any industry, there will always be entrepreneurs and managers who have been successful at every stage of their career. But apart from the fact that they are relatively few in number, isn’t it just possible that the big, successful names of today may have had a time may have been through a phase when despair was a major part of their lives? It is entirely possible that if the word ‘failure’ has never been associated with some entrepreneurs and managers, it may be because they have taken great care to conceal failures that they experienced early on in their lives?
 
No doubt, there are successful bosses (not leaders) who have never known failure, who therefore don’t understand the phenomenon, and also don’t understand managers who might have made a mistake entirely in good faith. Such individuals would do well to ponder Oliver Goldsmith’s thought-provoking observation that “our greatest glory consists not in never failing, but in rising every time we fall.”  

While oil prices are continuously on the rise and the government is throwing up its hands saying that nothing much can be done about it, the people of this country are also slowly led to believe that nuclear energy perhaps is the only solution to secure our energy future. Even the former President of the country, a nuclear scientist has endorsed the deal. While the Left has arrayed a number of reasons as to why India should not go ahead with this deal including some costing models that seems to suggest that the nation is being clandestinely robbed through this deal, what I haven’t heard anyone (except a bank from Iceland exploring opportunities in India) talk about is the huge potential of geothermal power (that is clean energy) that is waiting to be harnessed straight out of the hot surface under our very feet. Geothermal energy has transformed nations like Iceland so much so their President Mr. Olafur Grimsson who is driving his country towards a zero carbon economy, swears by it.

So what is “geothermal power”? Have you seen hot steam piping out of the earth’s surface naturally? They are called hot springs. Well this simply put is geothermal activity.  The earth’s inner core is very hot. Geothermal zones are known to be located near seismically active areas. This heat is harnessed through drilling holes to drive up water and steam which are separated. The cleaned steam is used to power the turbines that produce electricity without any greenhouse emissions and the separated water is pumped back to rejuvenate the steam source.  
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As many as about 20 countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines, are operating geothermal power plants that run twenty four by seven. 
A report of the International Energy Agency says that “The costs of geothermal energy have dropped substantially from the systems built in the 1970s. Generation costs at current plants in the United States are as low as USD 0.015/kWh to USD 0.025/kWh. New construction can deliver power at USD 0.05/kWh to USD 0.08/kWh, depending on the quality of the resource”
 
India does not figure anywhere on the global geothermal power map.  Has our planners done anything on this so far? Is there a policy formulated to attract investment in geothermal energy? The country needs to tap on all possible sources of energy, particularly renewable and green sources of energy like geothermal. The Minister for New and Renewable Energy is reported to have recently announced that they will encourage private participation and provide access to data on geothermal resources in India available with the National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad. It will again be the pioneering entrepreneur who will have to educate our policy makers. That is the price to do business.

Decades later I am reflecting on TMM’s proclamation and wondering if that is still true. The concept is both elusive and evolving. The term “average Indian” is used effortlessly and without demur. A country with a over a billion people, about 3000 communities, 29 states, 6 union territories, about 600,000 villages, 18 official languages plus 96 other languages not listed in the Constitution and 216 mother tongues is to say the least a complex amalgam of castes, races and religions with its own unique colours, odours and tastes. Add to this the huge disparity in income and wealth; you have a unique brew called India. TMM’s analogy was rather playful but not badly chosen. 

Borrowing TMM’s thoughts and contemplate on it in the context of the post 2009 election scenario let me ask -  is there an average Indian Voter? Take a look at the organized manner in which we conducted the recent elections for 543 Parliament seats. Over 800,000 polling booths, 700 million plus voters, about 415 million votes polled and many of the statistics surrounding the elections are staggering including our ability to elect as many as 150 members of Parliament who have criminal cases pending against them and perhaps the richest Parliament so far with about 300 crorepatis ( one crore is ten million) .  I had a sense of pride as I went to the polling booth on the 7th morning at 7.30 am along with my wife to cast our votes. The diversity of candidates was both revealing and disturbing too.  

I was impressed with the orderliness at the polling booth and the seriousness with which the polling officials were doing their job. It is remarkable that a country as huge as India could get their act together in a systematic manner. It is indeed a matter of pride that we have our own indigenous EVM – the Electronic Voting Machine. The EVM is reported to be faultless and enables the announcement of results an efficient and relatively accurate one unlike the vote counting errors reported in the US and the latest errors found in testing some US machines in New Mexico. In spite of this, it is amazing that our politicians are not questioning the accuracy of these EVMs. The votes are cast, they are counted and results announced. No one questions except a very few who may have lost by meagre margins. If you win, it is your fate and if you lose, it is again your fate. What a wonderful concept!!  
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So is there an average Indian after all in Incredible India?  How do we stick together as a nation and perform impossible feats? How do we tolerate and adjust to live together as a nation? How do we as very rich and very poor people stay together to run this nation?  What is this glue?
 
Are we fatalists?
Are we a happy lot even when we are in gloom?
Do we all share a unconquerable spirit of hope – whether we are rich or poor whether we are urban or rural?
Is prudence a virtue that all Indians share? 
Are we a parsimonious lot across the board? 
 
Are these the shared attributes (some sort of glue) of the enigmatic average Indian?  Do we have less of a blur when we qualify the average Indian with a suffix like – average Indian voter, average Indian farmer, average Indian business man, average Indian politician, average Indian driver, average Indian bureaucrat, average Indian musician, average Indian Cricketer  and so on?